
Such is the assessment of Gen. Sir Nick Carter, the Chief of the General Staff. And he doesn’t rate our chances.
I’ve been saying similar things for years. That only goes to show how obvious they are: if a rank amateur like me can spot both the strategic menace and our inability to nullify it, then surely anyone can.
Well, not quite. While few will argue against the second proposition, that Britain is so weak militarily as to be practically disarmed, many are the ‘useful idiots’ who insist on Putin’s good intentions and generally spotless character.
They’ll probably be saying the same things if a Russian airborne division established a beachhead in Kent. You see, they’ll be saying, what our provocations have forced this good, Christian, anti-homosexual, patriotic, strong leader to do.
It’s anyone’s guess whether they’d change their tune if Russian tanks advanced on London. But I prefer to talk facts, not conjecture.
I shan’t repeat Sir Nick’s assessment of the relative military potential of Russia and Britain, or for that matter Europe. Those interested in the technical details can find them in today’s papers.
Suffice it to say that we’re decisively outgunned in every category – and the disparity is widening due to our successive governments’ criminal policy of denuding our military to pre-Napoleonic levels.
Then again, the only thing that matters to our spivocrats is self-perpetuation, which means garnering enough votes to win the next election. Pumping money into defence of the realm won’t achieve this purpose, while bloating welfare and NHS budgets to suicidal levels may.
Hence our spivocrats will throw trillions down the black hole of social spending and foreign aid, while only building, as a sop to the hawks, a couple of aircraft carriers with no aircrafts to carry.
But let’s concentrate on the nature of Putin’s Russia, along with her intentions. These are crucial because HMG’s entire defence policy is based on the assumptions peddled by Putin’s propagandists and their eager recipients in the West.
(Incidentally, if downloading child porn is a criminal offence because this encourages uploading it, then surely downloading RT should be as well. A few perverts aren’t going to cause nearly as much damage, after all.)
Alas, even reasonably unbiased Britons don’t understand the profoundly evil nature of Putin’s kleptofascist regime. We’ve lost the capacity to identify evil – or indeed to acknowledge it exists, this side of the Muslim world.
Those Britons don’t know much about evil regimes, and understand even less. Hence Lenin’s and Stalin’s nightmare had millions of supporters, especially within the fashionably lefty lumpen intelligentsia.
Hitler too had his supporters, drawn mainly from the classes above the intelligentsia. And the likes of Lloyd George and G. B. Shaw successfully spanned the two groups by favouring both red and brown Satanists.
Typologically, British fans of Putin resemble the group that supported Hitler, although their accents aren’t usually as upmarket. They certainly cite similar reasons: our government is weak and vacillating (true), their idol is strong (equally true), he’s patriotic (true about Hitler, less true about Putin), he’s the only hope of the world (false in both cases).
And even those who generously acknowledge that murdering or imprisoning dissidents, suppressing free press, turning the whole country and much of the world into an organised crime mob, attacking neighbours and grabbing pieces of their territory aren’t nice things to do still find excuses for the KGB colonel.
It’s all our fault, they say. We’ve provoked Putin by supporting the Ukraine’s independence and expanding NATO to include the Baltics.
This only goes to show that their moral compass must sit next to a powerful magnet. Chaps, the Russians deliberately starved millions of Ukrainians to death, forcing parents to eat their children. And in the next decade they murdered or deported about a quarter of the Baltics’ population.
In both places, guerrilla warfare against the Russians went on throughout the 1950s, with young people heroically going to their deaths to resist their murderers, torturers and suppressors of their national culture.
When their descendants finally managed to gain their independence, surely it’s the moral duty of the West to offer every possible support and protection? Even at a cost to itself?
However, Putin’s fans profess thinking in realpolitik, not moral, categories. But they wouldn’t know either morality or realpolitik if it bit them on the, well, nose. Because of that cognitive disorder they don’t realise that this is one of those rare instances when morality and realpolitik coincide.
They think Russia’s massive military build-up (see today’s papers) is just for show. They think that Putin’s hysterically bellicose propaganda identifying the West as both the enemy and the target is just a political stratagem designed to win the next election.
This only shows their pro-Putin bias married to cataclysmic ignorance of history, Russia, propaganda, military build-ups and just about everything else involved in the problem at hand.
Correcting such all-embracing ignorance in a short piece is an impossible task, but I can still outline some stab points. The most important one is that runaway militarisation coupled with total – not to say totalitarian – war propaganda acquires an inner logic all its own.
At some point militarisation becomes mobilisation and, as the German strategist Helmut von Moltke postulated, mobilisation is war. Once that juggernaut gathers speed, it soon reaches a point of no return.
I’d argue – and so evidently would Sir Nick – that Russia’s militarisation has already reached that point. So has her propaganda.
Bugles haven’t tooted and drums haven’t rattled so loudly in Russia since the 1930s, when Stalin was turning the populace into unthinking murderous automata ready to roll over Europe. I certainly never saw anything on the same scale during my 25 years in Russia (ending in 1973).
This sort of thing has the same effect as mobilisation. When the state’s whole raison d’être is rattling its sabre, at some point that sabre has to see the light of day. Otherwise the state will lose its legitimacy, a loss that its leader will be unlikely to survive physically.
Parallels with 1914 are being drawn all over the place, but the most critical one escapes most commentators’ attention. None of the future combatants wanted war then; they all hoped to achieve their ends by peaceful means. To that end, they all militarised, made bellicose noises and flexed their muscles.
They thus breathed life into the genie of war and consequently lost control over it. The genie came out of the bottle and wouldn’t be put back.
Putin runs a country where at least half of the population (and I’m being generous) live in appalling poverty, many of them actually starving. At the same time the country is facing a demographic catastrophe, with its population declining as a result of low birth rates, third-world life expectancy, practically non-existing medical care, undernourishment – and mass emigration.
Against that background, Putin and his junta are stealing the country blind, transferring trillions into various offshore havens. Putin has turned his whole entourage into billionaires, from his family and friends to his bodyguard and cook.
There’s a constant rumble of tectonic discontent in Russia, and an eruption can only be prevented by offering a metaphysical compensation for all the physical deprivations. Putin remembers Herzen’s maxim: the strongest chains tethering the people are forged out of victorious swords – or, to start with, out of the promise to unsheathe those swords.
But the deprivations are real, made even more so by the fact that Russians are allowed to travel to the West and compare. Since, in the good tradition of both the tsars and the Bolsheviks, the government is above reproach, that state of affairs has to be blamed on someone.
When Hitler took over a destitute, humiliated Germany, he identified the culprits rather narrowly: the Jews. So far this traditional enemy of everything that fascists of every hue see as good hasn’t been mentioned in Russia, at least not publicly by its government.
For the time being Putin has set his sights wider: the West. And he has made a solemn promise, sometimes in so many words, sometimes tacitly, that the West will pay for its perfidy.
Hence the whole logic of Russia’s kleptofascist regime demands war. Promises are supposed to be kept, and those who break them will be held accountable.
For all intents and purposes, Russia’s KGB government, backed by her KGB church, has already declared a crusade on the West. Sir Nick seems to realise this, and he’s aghast that the government doesn’t seem to.
In fact, the war is already in full swing, but only one side is fighting it – so far mostly with electronic and information weapons. Sir Nick knows that in modern warfare these are as deadly as tanks and missiles. So he screams, but, though his isn’t exactly the lone voice crying in the wilderness, it’s certainly not part of the mighty choir we need.
I do disagree with Sir Nick on one point. We aren’t facing the greatest threat since the Cold War. It’s the greatest since 1939 – and the only way to confront it is with a resolute show of strength.
With our government, I’m not holding my breath.