
Donald Trump and Viktor Orbán are birds of a feather, although neither looks particularly avian.
They feel a natural affinity for each other, and also for Putin. Putin is in some ways an aspirational figure for Trump and Orbán. They both envy the Russian dictator’s freedom of action, unrestricted by parliamentary pressure, judicial oversight and other annoyances.
However, because of such irritants, neither Orbán nor especially Trump can be too effusive in their admiration for that indicted war criminal. A few years ago, Trump could still afford the luxury of lauding Putin’s ‘genius’ in public, but now that Putin has reminded the world in Bucha and Mariupol that ‘genius’ and ‘genocide’ are cognates, his Western admirers have to be more restrained.
Moreover, they have to bow to the pressure exerted by their legislatures and impose tougher and tougher sanctions on Russia (Trump), or at least to go along with them (Orbán).
In that spirit, Trump has slapped a virtual embargo, supported with secondary sanctions, on the imports from Russia’s two biggest oil companies, Lookoil and Rosneft. The idea is to limit the flow of money into Putin’s war machine, which that ‘genius’ uses to commit genocide in the Ukraine.
As Cicero explained some 2,300 years ago, “Infinite money is the sinews of war” (nervi belli, pecunia infinita). Other thinkers have expressed the same idea in slightly different terms, referring to money as the lifeblood of warfare. Hence the idea behind the sanctions is to exsanguinate Putin’s aggression.
The idea is sound, but an attack on Russia’s oil exports creates collateral damage. Countries that depend on cheap Russian oil for their energy sustenance now have to get it elsewhere and pay considerably more.
Hungary could suffer more than most. The country gets 86 per cent of her oil from Russia, which explains why Orbán hopped on the plane and flew to the US to scream bloody murder, hoping that Trump’s hearing is acute enough to hear.
The route is Orbán’s well-trodden flight path. Even when Trump was between presidencies, Orbán, with the foresight of an intuitive apparatchik, often flew to Mar-a-Lago, Trump’s Ferney.
During those pilgrimages, the two men found out they spoke the same language, even if one did so in crude English and the other in Hungarian (which, looking at Orbán, I suspect, though can’t verify, is crude too).
Orbán realised that Trump saw politics as a global extension of his property development business, transactional and based on personal relationships. The kind of personal relationship the president favours is the other chap paying gluteal respects, and Orbán was happy to oblige.
He’d return home with sore lips but high hopes for the future, provided Trump got back into the White House. The latter obliged, and Orbán’s osculatory investment began to pay off.
It again did so the other day, when Trump granted Hungary a one-year exemption from the new batch of oil sanctions. “It’s very difficult for [Hungary] to get the oil and gas from other areas,” Trump said at the joint press conference. “They don’t have the advantage of having sea. … They don’t have the ports. They have a difficult problem.”
The US could easily solve that problem, and in fact has begun to do so by selling Hungary $600 million worth of liquefied natural gas, of which the US has a practically unlimited supply thanks to fracking. Doubling the volume of gas exports and perhaps lowering the price would go a long way towards relieving Hungary’s land-locked ordeal, but sanction-busting seems easier and cheaper.
“Pipelines are not an ideological or political issue. It’s a physical reality …,” said Orbán, proving he has nothing to learn about demagoguery from his idol. Another lesson he has learned well comes easily to all populists, Right or Left. They, nationalists or globalists, believe their audience is generally stupid and, judging by their electoral success, they may have a point.
Pipelines, and economy in general, are always a “political issue” – it’s not for nothing that economy uses ‘political’ as its forename. This is the case even in peacetime, and infinitely more so at wartime.
It’s for political, or rather geopolitical, reasons that sanctions on Russian oil were imposed in the first place, and surely Orbán understands this. So the “physical reality” of the oil pipeline from Russia is as irrelevant as it is indisputable.
Orbán has been a consistent Putinversteher, one of the sincerest and most passionate among European leaders. According to him, Putin is right when blaming NATO for provoking the conflict, and this is something other Western leaders “misunderstand”.
The Ukraine, explains Orbán, can’t win the war in the battlefield, so the West might as well stop propping up the regime both his role models, Putin and Trump, dislike. Like Trump, Orbán wants to put an end to the war immediately, and if that can only be done on Putin’s terms, then so be it.
Orbán is a fierce opponent of the Ukraine joining European alliances. He has said he’d veto her joining the EU, and the very idea of that long-suffering country ever joining NATO makes him shudder with revulsion.
Viktor feels deep empathy for Vlad not only for emotional reasons but also for pragmatic ones. Both he and Putin have to stay in power in order to survive, and not just politically. Should they lose office, both Orbán and Putin are certain to face charges of corruption, and the latter also of war crimes.
Putin is in the enviable position of not being accountable to the electorate – he can only lose power to a coup, in which case he may not live long enough to face those charges. Orbán, on the other hand, has to win elections, and the next one is in April.
Had Hungary not got Trump’s exemption, Hungarians’ living standards would have dipped immediately, and people usually make their leaders pay for that at the polls. Thus Trump has done Orbán a life-saving favour, but then that’s what friends are for.
That exemption is wrong on many different levels, from moral to geopolitical. Ukrainians pay with their blood for every barrel of oil Putin manages to flog, but neither Orbán nor Trump cares about that. Their electorates may, but not as much as they care about the price of petrol and heating oil.
Still, I haven’t seen a single printed word of opprobrium of this latest exercise in the art of the deal, to borrow a phrase. Even if our conservative press no longer thinks in terms of good and evil, or even right and wrong, we are all in even deeper trouble than we know.








