
Let’s start by stating the obvious: Trump likes Russia and respects Putin, while disliking the Ukraine and despising Zelensky.
Anyone who denies these observations couldn’t have been following the current events closely. Specifically, such a lazy commentator must have missed the disgusting scene played out in the White House on 28 February.
Trump and Vance pounced on Zelensky like rabid attack dogs, screaming invective, treating the Ukrainian president like a misbehaving skivvy, stabbing at his chest with their index fingers. Visceral hostility was unmistakable, even if in subsequent encounters Trump moderated it somewhat.
Nothing like that ever happens with Putin. He gets a red carpet treatment even when Trump expresses mild disagreements. Putin is Trump’s friend and so he remains despite the odd argument.
The Donald can barely conceal his irritation with the Ukraine’s obduracy. Why couldn’t that so-called country give Putin whatever he wants, letting the US – specifically the Trump Organisation – and Russia do profitable business together? Russia, after all, is stronger and richer than the Ukraine, and Trump respects strength and wealth above such incidentals as morality, international law or even long-term strategic interests.
It’s against that background that one should look at the 28-point ultimatum, aka peace plan, that the Ukraine has until Thursday to accept or face the consequences.
First, one general remark that really cancels out every specific item on the list. Even assuming that Putin signs this ‘plan’, which isn’t a foregone conclusion, in what parallel universe does one have to reside to believe Russia will comply with its terms?
Russia, both before Putin’s tenure and during it, has broken every treaty she has ever signed. Following Bertie Russell’s logic, that doesn’t necessarily mean she’ll break this one. But following sound logic, it means precisely that.
Putin will treat any ceasefire as a chance to regroup, rearm, restock and come again with renewed strength. Anyone who doesn’t see this is either unqualified to comment on Russian affairs or else isn’t acting in good faith.
With that in mind, let’s look at some salient specifics.
Point 1. Ukraine’s sovereignty will be confirmed.
Coming from a fascist regime hellbent on conquest, such confirmation is meaningless. Russia has confirmed the Ukraine’s sovereignty on hundreds of occasions from 1994 onwards, and continued to do so even as Russian bandits murdered, raped and looted their way through the Ukraine.
Point 3. It is expected that Russia will not invade neighbouring countries and NATO will not expand further.
Does ‘expected’ strike you as an ironclad guarantee? Also implied here is parity between Russian aggression and NATO expansion. This is false: NATO expansion is strictly defensive, whereas Russian aggression is offensive in more ways than one.
Witness the fact that Sweden and Finland, which made a point of staying outside NATO for 70-odd years, applied for membership immediately after Russia invaded the Ukraine.
Equating Russian invasion with NATO expansion is a cynical sop to Putin and nothing but.
Point 5. Ukraine will receive reliable security guarantees.
Apparently, a separate document states that the US and her NATO allies will apply to the Ukraine Article 5 of the NATO Charter: an attack on one member is an attack on all. But Trump has stated on many occasions that he regards Article 5 as only a statement of vague intent, not an unbreakable guarantee.
Since Point 7 obligates the Ukraine to forswear NATO membership for ever, somehow I doubt that Trump will be more inclined to honour Article 5 when it’s a non-NATO member that comes under attack.
6. The size of the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be limited to 600,000 personnel.
For a peacetime army, that’s too many. For a country at war, that’s too few: the Ukrainian army currently has 800,000-850,000 personnel.
As Point 28 makes clear, this reduction should happen before the ceasefire comes into effect, meaning that the Ukraine should lose 25 per cent of her army while the war is still going on. That will enable Putin to grab even more territory and kill even more Ukrainians. Some peace plan.
Point 8. NATO agrees not to station troops in Ukraine.
In other words, NATO won’t offer the Ukraine the only security guarantee that could make a difference.
Point 10. The US guarantee comes with strings attached:
- The US guarantee may be soft, but it must be paid for in hard cash.
- If the Ukraine invades Russia, it will lose the guarantee, such as it is. Since the Ukraine will never do so, this item is meaningless to the point of being idiotic.
- If Russia invades the Ukraine, she’ll lose all the benefits of the ‘peace plan’. In other words, when a rebuilt Russian army rolls over an enfeebled Ukraine, Russia will again be rebuked. Big deal – just look at the effect current sanctions are having.
- The next one is my favourite. It says exactly how Russia will break the peace treaty: “If the Ukraine launches a missile at Moscow or St. Petersburg without cause, the security guarantee will be deemed invalid.”
First, this suggests that launching swarms of missiles at other Russian cities is perfectly acceptable, as long as not a single one is launched at Moscow or Petersburg. Since the Ukraine wouldn’t under any circumstances break the peace treaty by attacking any Russian cities, this seems nonsensical.
But the subtext is clear. When Russia is ready to pounce again, she’ll fire a single false-flag missile at Moscow and declare the treaty null and void. The FSB has form in such tricks: it was by using a similar stratagem that it put its man, Putin, into the Kremlin.
Point 13. Russia will be reintegrated into the global economy.
All sanctions bite the dust, all bygones are bygones, Russia rejoins the G8, and – here’s where Trump’s business acumen comes in:
“The United States will enter into a long-term economic cooperation agreement for mutual development in the areas of energy, natural resources, infrastructure, artificial intelligence, data centres, rare earth metal extraction projects in the Arctic, and other mutually beneficial corporate opportunities.”
Remember the billions the Trump Organisation has made in Qatar since last year? Multiply that by 10 or even 100. Isn’t that what diplomacy is all about?
Point 14. Frozen funds will be used as follows: $100 billion in frozen Russian assets will be invested in US-led efforts to rebuild and invest in Ukraine, with the US receiving 50 per cent of the profits.
That’s what rebuilding the Ukraine means. But it’s not all it means: “The remainder of the frozen Russian funds will be invested in a separate US-Russian investment vehicle that will implement joint projects in specific areas. This fund will be aimed at strengthening relations and increasing common interests to create a strong incentive not to return to conflict.”
Allow me to explain: whether or not the Ukraine is rebuilt, the US and Russia will profit handsomely. Fair is fair.
Point 20. Both countries undertake to implement educational programmes in schools and society aimed at promoting understanding and tolerance of different cultures and eliminating racism and prejudice.
Specifically, the ecclesiastical extension of the FSB, the Moscow Patriarchate, will be invited back to the Ukraine to continue its subversion, Russian propaganda media and the use of the Russian language won’t be curtailed in any way and – this is the kicker: “All Nazi ideology and activities must be rejected and prohibited.”
By signing this, Zelensky will confirm Russia’s mendacious casus belli claim that the Ukrainian government is neo-Nazi, and that Russia invaded to de-Nazify the country. Putin, on the other hand, will be able to claim that this war aim has been achieved.
Point 21. Territories:
- Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk will be recognised as de facto Russian, including by the United States.
- Kherson and Zaporizhzhia will be frozen along the line of contact, which will mean de facto recognition along the line of contact.
- Russia will relinquish other agreed territories it controls outside the five regions.
- Ukrainian forces will withdraw from the part of Donetsk Oblast that they currently control, and this withdrawal zone will be considered a neutral demilitarised buffer zone, internationally recognised as territory belonging to the Russian Federation. Russian forces will not enter this demilitarised zone.
Commentators well-disposed towards Putin attach a great significance to that de facto business. De jure those lands will still belong to the Ukraine, so what’s the problem? The problem is that Russia will impose her fascist rule on the Ukrainians currently living there.
Also, the Ukraine will cede to Russia territories Putin has been unable to grab since 2014, where the Ukrainians have built mighty fortifications. And anyone taking seriously all that demilitarised zone business is, putting it politely, naïve.
Point 25. Ukraine will hold elections in 100 days.
When, and whether, the Ukraine holds elections is no one’s business but her own. In any case, three months is a risibly insufficient time to resume normal democratic procedures in a country ravaged by brutal invaders.
Point 26. All parties involved in this conflict will receive full amnesty for their actions during the war and agree not to make any claims or consider any complaints in the future.
This means the International Court in the Hague must withdraw the arrest warrant it issued for Putin’s war crimes. It’s as if hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian civilians haven’t been killed, raped, robbed, left homeless, their children kidnapped to be ‘re-educated’ in Russia. All is forgiven, Vlad, the slate is squeaky clean.
Any Ukrainian official putting his name to this obscenity will be betraying those dead and abused, along with common decency. This so-called peace plan is a beastly betrayal of the Ukraine – something to be expected, considering the source.








