
As I write this, Chairman Xi must be asking himself “And what am I, chop suey?” If Trump can launch in his own backyard an attack on a regime he dislikes, why can’t Xi do the same to Taiwan?
After all, though the Chavez-Maduro regime has dubious legitimacy, Trump and just about everyone else accepts that Venezuela is a sovereign country. China, on the other hand, offers no such recognition to Taiwan, which she regards as a rogue split-away province of the mainland.
And Xi hates Taiwan viscerally, at least as much as Trump hates Maduro and his gang. Moreover, Taiwan is only 250 miles from mainland China, whereas Venezuela is 2,800 miles from the US. If Venezuela is in the US sphere of influence, then Taiwan really must be ripe for plucking.
I can’t claim to be a reliable mind reader, but it’s unimaginable that such thoughts wouldn’t cross Xi’s mind. And Putin may be following the same train of thought.
Unlike the US and Venezuela, Russia and the Ukraine used to be the same country. The post-Maidan Ukraine is every bit as repulsive to Putin as Madura’s Venezuela is to Trump. So what, are we going to say quod licet Doni, non licet Vladi? Not on your nelly, Donald, Putin must be thinking. You’re no more Jupiter than I’m a bull. If Venezuela is your sphere of influence, then the Ukraine is mine, ten times over.
This is a caricature, but all caricatures are based on reality. The brilliant and daring raid of US commandos is worthy of admiration, and Maduro certainly deserves all he gets. But, as Newton taught, every action has a reaction. So will this one, but I can’t second-guess what it’ll be. More to the point, neither can anyone. Even more to the point, neither can Trump.
One could argue persuasively that Venezuela, that beachhead established in the Western Hemisphere by the evil axis of China, Russia, Iran and Cuba, presented a threat to US strategic interests.
Therefore, Trump must be praised for acting more decisively and successfully than JFK did in 1961. Then the US armed, trained and landed a Cuban exile force sent out to unseat the Castro regime. But then Kennedy got cold feet, didn’t deliver the promised air support and abandoned the landing party to its gruesome fate.
Trump, on the other hand, decided to dirty his hands on Venezuela, having first washed them of the Ukraine. Could this link be not only temporal but also causative?
The strategy document issued the other week spells out a non-interventionist, US-centred, practically isolationist policy. Trump evidently doesn’t regard bombing Caracas and kidnapping Maduro as a deviation from that policy – it’s more or less America’s domestic housekeeping.
Given Trump’s transparent contempt for all those jumped-up little countries pretending they can play in the global arena, it’s possible that there was some international deal struck that we know nothing about. The big boys, the US, China and Russia, may have agreed to give one another a free hand in their own bailiwicks: Eastern Europe for Russia, Taiwan and most of Southeast Asia for China, North and South America for the US.
Such a geopolitical deal could have been followed by a series of commercial ones, allowing US oil companies to claim back their assets Venezuela nationalised 50 years ago. In exchange, Russia and China would be allowed to ‘nationalise’, respectively, the Ukraine’s natural resources and Taiwan’s electronic industry. It goes without saying that the Trump family would get a slice of the action in all three cases.
This is, of course, conjecture, but it’s not groundless conjecture. Such an arrangement would be consistent with Trump’s statements and, more important, his actions over the past year.
Meanwhile, he has announced that the US would “run” Venezuela for a while, possibly quite a long while. This, though for the time being Trump has ruled out any further use of US military force.
How is he proposing to run Venezuela without GI boots on the ground? Judging by the rather understated resistance by the Venezuelan army, the great deal maker might have found some accommodation with the Maduro government, without Maduro.
But Quisling governments may create popular resistance, especially since the people of Venezuela detest Maduro and all his accomplices. And popular resistance may mean that Trump will have to use American troops, if only to secure the oilfields.
That would give further encouragement to China and Russia. If Trump can ‘run’ Venezuela by, for example, appointing Rubio as the country’s governor general, then why can’t Putin do the same with the Ukraine, only using, say, Lavrov in place of Rubio?
Many commentators reject appeals to international law, which they regard as a fiction. So it may be, to an extent. And anyway, neither European countries nor the US recognised the Maduro government as legitimate. Hence the only countries that insist on invoking international law are those belonging to what George Dubya Bush used to call the axis of evil.
Still, whatever we may think of international law, a series of multilateral treaties did create a quasi-legal framework for a global post-war order. Its principal precept is that countries shouldn’t attack one another, nor grab pieces of one another’s territory.
Say what you will about this arrangement, but at least it managed to preserve relative peace in Europe for almost 80 years. Russia has always placed herself outside that framework in word, but it more or less played along for decades, her occasional punitive expeditions to Eastern Europe notwithstanding.
Now not only Russia and China but also the US are governed by people who see no value in the post-war world order. The first two traditionally, and the US currently, see international relations in terms of undiluted exercise of naked power. It’s Kissinger’s realpolitik, but with a sinister and even more cynical dimension.
If my hunch is correct, and Trump has decided to reshape America as a regional, not global, superpower, and his foray into Venezuela is an extension of this new vision, then what we saw the other day was a show of weakness, not strength.
The US seems to be signalling her intention to divvy up the world – and its riches – among herself, China and Russia. Taking control of Venezuelan oil may be a way of strengthening America’s position in the hope of securing parity with China and superiority over Russia.
Much of this is guesswork – we don’t really know what goes on, nor what Trump’s plans are, nor whether he does have any plans worthy of the name. But do let’s remind ourselves of the time element: Trump only has three more years in the White House.
Moreover, when it comes to invading and ‘running’ other countries, the US is a sprinter, not a stayer. In Iraq, Libya and Syria, the Americans moved in at full pelt, got rid of some unsavoury rulers, tried to introduce American-style reforms to tribal societies, failed – and went home, leaving behind a blood-soaked chaos and swarms of desperate people fleeing to sunnier climes, mostly in Europe.
The US already has some 800,000 Venezuelans living there – would they like to have another million? Or does Trump intend to send the original 800,000 back to their Maduro-free homeland?
The Donald is hard to second-guess, even harder to understand. He doesn’t seem to have any discernible philosophy of life other than enriching himself and his family. That makes him unpredictable, which at times could be a strength, but more often a weakness.
Let’s wait and see, shall we? And as we do so, let’s place bets on which Latin American country will be next. Cuba? Colombia? I’m talking specifically about Latin America because I’m sure the Donald wants to leave Canada until last. And Greenland is only just in the Western Hemisphere, which is probably why James Monroe didn’t include it in his doctrine.
The time has come to rebrand it as the Trump-Monroe Doctrine, don’t you think? Yes, this does have a ring to it. So would Washington D.T., but those initials have unfortunte implictions.







