And the foot is clad in a Russian jackboot, coming down on Europe’s throat.
During the Russo-Turkish war of 1877-1878, the Russians were trying to grab the Straits, their perennial strategic goal.
Britain’s strategic goal, on the other hand, was to keep the Russians off those vital waterways. And I know it’s hard to believe, but in those days Britain still had enough clout to get her way.
I’m not sure popular song charts existed at the time, but if they had, one song would have been firmly perched at the top. Written by GW Hunt, it captured the Zeitgeist so accurately that there wasn’t a pub or a music hall where drinkers, singers or drinker-singers weren’t belting it out:
We don’t want to fight but by jingo if we do
We’ve got the ships, we’ve got the men, and got the money too!
We’ve fought the Bear before and while we’re Britons true!,
The Russians shall not have Constantinople.
Quite apart from its spirit-rousing effect, the song gave rise to a new word, which, however, no longer applies to its country of origin, nor indeed to any of her allies. Only one European country is jingoistic these days: the Bear still roars, while Britons are no longer true, at least not in the sense meant in the song.
America, as personified by her administration, is no longer true to her historical and moral foundations either. Yet it’s good to see that an attempt is being made to reinforce her commercial foundations, if only at a cost to the other two.
Yesterday Steve Witkoff and that nepo baby, Jared Kushner, spent five hours spinning their wheels in the company of their Russian counterparts, Dmitriev and Ushakov. Or rather it was the Russians spinning the wheel, with the two Americans cast in the role of hamsters.
Going into that latest exercise in futility, Putin helpfully informed Europeans that he was ready to start a pan-continental war at any moment, tomorrow if need be. Even though Putin was probably unfamiliar with that 1877 song, he osmotically paraphrased its first two lines close to the text.
The participants described the talks as “useful” and “productive”, another way of saying they were meaningless and absolutely guaranteed not to produce any results. The starting point was the discussion, and Putin’s rejection, of the slight modifications to the original 28-point plan, misattributed to Trump.
In fact, it was composed by Dmitriev and Ushakov, who then showed they are up to date with technology by using Google Translate to render it in bad English. The provenance of the plan was established by textual analysis, but in any case it was clear that the text was exactly what State Secretary Rubio said it was: the Russian wish list.
Witkoff then coached his new Russian friends on how to sell that Ukraine capitulation plan to Trump, by telling him he is the ultimate peacemaker to be blessed, the plan is actually his, and no statesman in history has ever displayed such boundless sagacity. The end of the war (which would never have started had TRUMP BEEN PRESIDENT!!!) is nigh.
The talks were doomed for the reason many Westerners don’t understand, or pretend not to. Skipping the unnecessary details, the Russians have one overarching wish: annihilation of the Ukraine – physical, political, cultural and civilisational. Putin will reject any plan served on any other platter, for accepting it would spell his own suicide, and not just the political kind.
But what does Trump want to get out of it, other than the elusive bauble of the Nobel Peace Prize? There one has to sympathise with the Donald, who finds himself in a pickle.
His approval rating has fallen faster than that of any other recent president. It now stands at -19 per cent, with 57 per cent disapproving and another 4 per cent not sure.
The Republican Party is running scared, and it has already begun to lose elections, notably in New York City. A bloodbath in next year’s mid-terms seems likely, which may effectively turn Trump into a lame dog president facing a hostile Congress.
In some ways, he has fallen victim to his own intemperate braggadocio. Constantly praising himself in the most tasteless manner I’ve ever seen in Western politics, Trump promised Americans rivers flowing with liquid gold. No inflation whatsoever, rapid growth, better standards of living, that sort of thing.
Since the liquid gold has failed to materialise, Americans seem to hold Trump in default. They correctly see his trade war on the world as a failure, but it’s not just the economy. Many Americans still believe in the country’s higher purpose, and they remember the past, when America supported victims, not aggressors.
The past isn’t especially distant: even Joe Biden, awful president though he was, called Putin a criminal and declared his unequivocal support for the Ukraine. The actual support fell rather short of the Ukraine’s expectations and needs, but at least America’s moral position was spelled out, which meant something.
The US came out as the Ukraine’s ally, and so did Europe. Europe’s position has remained unchanged, but Trump’s America now sees herself as an unbiased mediator in a conflict that has nothing to do with her.
Yet this is a copout. Passersby who maintain their neutrality when a woman is being raped are de facto on the rapist’s side. The same goes for the rape of a country: a refusal to take sides means taking the side of the aggressor, in this case Putin’s Russia.
Trump increasingly looks like the leader of his family clan first, his country second and the free world not at all. For example, acting through the same duo of Witkoff and the Nepo Baby, he has already proposed turning Gaza into a property developing venture, presumably spearheaded by the Trump Organisation.
He sees in his mind’s eye that whole beleaguered sector becoming a giant theme park for the whole family, complete with high-rise hotels, casinos, health spas and any number of Trump towers, each decorated in his own impeccable taste.
If his plan for the Middle East was gauche, his plan for the Ukraine – as much of it as one can glean from scraps of information – is downright sinister. Trump seems to be in favour of shunting Europe aside as an annoying irrelevance, then joining Putin in divvying up the Ukraine and stripping her assets.
The 300 billion euros in Russian assets frozen in Europe are to be thawed and used as grist to the mill of Russo-American joint ventures. These are to include not only reconstruction projects in the Ukraine, but also mutual exploration of the Arctic and even Mars.
The EU’s idea of confiscating the money and using it for Ukrainian aid was vetoed by Belgium, which spared Trump the effort of doing it himself. He thinks in dollars and cents, not morals and sense. If this means holding the victim down to assist the rapist, then so be it.
The Wall Street Journal reports that Putin’s proxies are already waving before US companies such tasty carrots as access to Russian hydrocarbon assets, rare earth metals and gas production.
Neil Chapman, senior VP of Exxon Mobil, has had a secret meeting in Doha with Igor Sechin, head of Rosneft. Exxon and other US corporations are also exploring the possibility of acquiring shares in Lukoil. Both Rosneft and Lukoil are currently under American and European sanctions, which on this evidence won’t survive for long.
Meanwhile, Putin keeps saying that he is prepared to fight until every last Ukrainian bites the dust, and if Europe wants some of it too, he’ll be happy to oblige. Europeans are finally waking up to the catastrophe that has been brewing for 80 years.
Having been relying on the US for their defence, they have run their own armies down to the level of inadequately armed police forces. One British and European expert after another points out that, in the likely event of an expanded Russian aggression, the continent, especially its western half, is ripe for plucking.
Meanwhile Trump makes no secret of his contempt for his European allies and what he correctly identifies as their freeloading on America’s defence spending. If they “don’t pay up”, Putin can have them, see if Trump cares.
Putin is much more of a man after Trump’s own heart: decisive, strong, disdainful of democratic and legal annoyances, eager to do business with partners who don’t mind dealing in stolen goods.
But Putin is more than that: he is a Russian jingoist hellbent on restoring Stalin’s empire.
He is convinced that, for all its bulk and riches, Europe is nothing but a soft target for a fascist aggressor with a lean and hungry look. Putin is convinced that no NATO country will come to the aid of, say, Estonia should Russian troops sweep into, say, Narva.
For as long as that conviction continues to ring true, another European war will remain likely. And we already know that this time around America won’t come to our aid – not while Trump is president.