The vultures are circling

Will the Ukraine be raped by Putin or robbed by Trump? Both, say the two predators as they prepare to gnaw on the carcass of a proud and heroic nation.

The Ukraine finds herself caught between the rock of America and the hard place of Russia, with the two powers eyeing her freedom, sovereignty and what’s left of her wealth. Make no mistake about it: Trump and Putin aren’t just friends but also allies, an axis about to be driven through the heart of the Ukraine.

First, I don’t know if Trump is deceiving himself when talking about a peace ‘deal’, but he is certainly deceiving everyone else. There is no peace deal, and there won’t be because Putin doesn’t want it.

Trump’s alter ego said as much yesterday, when talking to the crew of the Archangelsk submarine.

“Russia doesn’t understand what and with whom she should sign anything in the Ukraine,” said Putin. “There will be new leaders there tomorrow. Civil powers in the Ukraine aren’t legitimate – if Zelensky is illegitimate, then so is everyone else.”

Both Trump and Witkoff seem to agree. And an illegitimate government isn’t authorised to conduct any negotiations or sign any treaties, that much is clear. Full stop.

“To be discussed is the creation of a provisional government in the Ukraine under the UN aegis,” continued Putin, “with subsequent elections.”

In other words, no treaty is possible until a Putin puppet, such as Yanukovych or Medvedchuk, has been ensconced in Kiev. The Ukraine’s sovereignty is incompatible with peace, as far as Putin is concerned.

“Russia has a strategic initiative along the entire front,” added Putin. “There’s every reason to believe that the Russian army will finish the Ukrainians off.”

Therefore, any talk of a ceasefire is pointless. After all, since Russia is at the threshold of victory, it would be foolhardy of her to stop firing.

“Russia isn’t going to make mistakes based on trusting her so-called Western partners,” – now that seems to be a slap in the face of the great deal artist.

Trump has made a big show of talking to the Ukraine and Russia, with the aim of forming a partnership for peace. Now Putin has told him and other Western leaders exactly what they can do with such partnerships.

While Putin is planning to rape the Ukraine, turning her into Russia’s political colony, Trump wants to rob her, turning the Ukraine into America’s economic satrapy. The beauty of this double whammy is that the two jaws of the same vice are acting in perfect harmony.

In a leaked document, Trump makes extortionist demands on the Ukraine, offering nothing in return. No defence clauses, no security guarantees, no peacekeeping presence – nothing at all. The last time such a diplomatic coup was successfully achieved was in 1938, when Hitler dictated his terms to Czechoslovakia.

Trump is demanding huge reparation payments, even though no agreement exists stipulating the Ukraine’s indebtedness. He is also laying claim not just to the Ukraine’s rare-earth metals, but all other metals as well, along with the country’s hydrocarbon resources and much of her infrastructure.

This is much worse than the previous demands, panned by all European countries as neo-colonialist extortion. But, as the French say, appetite comes with eating.

The new draft provides for the setting up of the United States-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund that will control the Ukraine’s “critical minerals or other minerals, oil, natural gas (including liquified natural gas), fuels or other hydrocarbons and other extractable materials”. Since ‘liquefied’ is misspelled, I suspect Trump wrote this ransom demand himself.

Registered in Delaware, the Fund will be under American control. The US will have first refusal rights on all projects and also veto power on any trade between the Ukraine and other countries. Among other things, this will make it impossible for the Ukraine to join the EU or any other alliance with European countries.

The US will contribute no investment capital to the Fund – that, as far as Trump is concerned, has been taken care of by American military aid. No agreement on such reciprocity was signed, but the Donald isn’t going to be held back by such incidentals.

Moving right along, the draft says the US will control infrastructure linked to natural resources “including, but not limited to, roads, rail, pipelines and other transportation assets; ports, terminals and other logistics facilities and refineries, processing facilities, natural gas liquefaction and/or regasification facilities and similar assets”.

Will Zelensky be allowed to keep his wife, or will she have to become Trump’s concubine? That’s the only asset so far left out of that demand for expropriation.

At the same time, Trump’s administration is seeking a comprehensive energy partnership with Putin’s Russia, with Siberian gas again flooding Europe and turning it into an energy dependency. To that end, talks have been going on in Switzerland for weeks to reopen the Nord Stream 2 pipelines, sabotaged at the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion.

The Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, confirmed that this deal is in the making: “There is talk about Nord Stream. It would be interesting if the Americans put pressure on Europe, to make them stop refusing our Russian gas.”

You can bet on that, Sergei. Part of Trump’s deal artistry is putting pressure on America’s friends while kowtowing to her enemies.

Nor is it just gas. Trump has agreed to help Russia restore its “access to the world market for agricultural and fertiliser exports, lower maritime insurance costs, and enhance access to ports and payment systems for such transactions.” That’s the least he can do to reward Putin for graciously agreeing to stop hostilities in the Black Sea, the only part of the war Russia was losing.

Meanwhile military experts insist that Russia won’t be able to wage war past this year. She is running out of all requisite resources, especially money. A massive inflow of war materiel to the Ukraine could roll back Russian advances, putting the Ukraine in a much stronger negotiating position.

But that outcome clearly isn’t on, not with the two vultures dead set on tearing up the Ukraine’s independence, carving up her territory, and creating a partnership against vital European interests.

This arrangement is every bit as revolting as the 1939 Pact between Hitler and Stalin. That one came to grief eventually, but not before millions of lives had been lost. I wouldn’t like to make a prediction for the love affair between Trump and Putin, but if I did, there wouldn’t be a single optimistic note there.

Meanwhile, I suggest that the Ukraine replace her national anthem, The Ukraine Hasn’t Perished Yet, with the 1977 song Torn Between Two Lovers. It seems to be more appropriate.