
When I left America in 1988, that was an idiomatic New York sneer at something worthless.
Since that time, most subway fares in New York have gone up to $2.90, which makes the idiom too unwieldy. I mean, who’s going to say “that and two-ninety will get you on the subway”? Too much of a mouthful, that.
Whatever the numeral in the expression, in those days it wasn’t often uttered in reference to American security guarantees. Europeans, especially those in NATO countries, were confident in the knowledge that, push come to shove, America will rush to their aid.
Many of those hopes were associated with the US nuclear umbrella. But not only that. Ever since the Cold War started, the US Army Court of Engineers had been busy turning West Germany into a terrain friendly to heavy American tanks.
New bridges and hundreds of miles of new roads were built, old roads were widened, old bridges fortified. Fulda Gap, the lowland corridor running from Thuringia to Frankfurt, was identified by Western strategists as a possible route for a Soviet invasion. Hence it was fortified to become a death trap for Soviet armour.
It wasn’t just America’s military might that helped the Europeans sleep peacefully, while making the Soviets toss and turn through the night. It was the certainty that, regardless of who was the US president, America would use her strength to repel a Soviet aggression.
However, while the subway fare in NYC has since been inflated almost three-fold, the value of the American security guarantee has gone down to a square root of sod-all. And it’s that New York native, Donald Trump, who is largely responsible for this crash.
I don’t know how many Ukrainians are familiar with the expression in the title above. But those who are must be uttering it to react against Trump’s latest bright idea of how to extinguish the Ukraine’s sovereignty.
Having had his emetic powwow with Putin, Trump has summoned Zelensky to the White House, where the Ukrainian will be given an offer he can’t accept. Perhaps ‘offer’ is the wrong word here.
Trump will issue an ultimatum to the Ukrainian president, and unlike his ultimatums to Russia, that one will be ironclad. The US will withdraw all support from the Ukraine and instead will form an economic alliance with Russia – unless Zelensky agrees to the peace terms on offer.
Russia will get all of Donbas, including the parts her troops have been unable to occupy despite suffering horrendous casualties. The Ukrainians have turned the unoccupied section of Eastern Ukraine into a fortified zone putting all those Maginot and Mannerheim Lines to shame.
If the Russians are ever able to take those areas, they’ll have to bury it under an avalanche of Russian corpses – tens if not hundreds of thousands of body bags travelling back east. And these are the fortifications that the Ukraine is supposed to cede without a shot. In exchange for what, exactly?
Here comes Trump’s lightbulb moment. Sign the deal, he’ll tell Zelensky, and the US – well, he, Donald Trump – will give the Ukraine NATO-style security guarantees. No, the Ukraine wouldn’t be able to join the alliance because that would upset Vlad too much. She’ll have to remain neutral in perpetuity.
But not to worry: the umbrella of Article 5 will cover the Ukraine as securely as it covers all full-fledged NATO members. Now, is that a great deal or what?
I hope Zelensky will be able to withstand the ensuing harangue delivered in the tones often heard on the NY subway and tell Trump in words of one syllable what he could do with his ‘deal’. For the umbrella in question is already leaking, and it may soon be folded altogether.
That is, if Trump’s earlier pronouncements on that subject are to be believed – and, when it comes to his denigration of America’s NATO allies, I find those statements utterly believable.
Trump has for years made his feelings about Article 5 known: as far as he is concerned, its application is strictly contingent on Europe’s behaviour. Unless America’s European allies “pay up” for their defence, that Article is null and void.
Moreover, if European NATO members fail to pay up, Trump will actually encourage Putin to attack them. As he put it in February 2024, Trump “would encourage the Russians to do whatever the hell they want.”
Encouraging the Russians to do “whatever the hell they want” goes beyond simply withdrawing American protection from NATO members. It means Trump would be prepared to form an alliance with an aggressive fascist regime threatening a global nuclear holocaust.
The US president is known for uttering incoherent and irresponsible phrases in the heat of the moment. It’s possible he didn’t mean that threat (and countless others in the same vein) the way it sounded. He might have merely tried to emphasise the need for Europe to take more of a hands-on approach to its defence. If so, the point is perfectly valid.
Europe has been criminally negligent for decades, relying on American protection rather than its own resources. Most European countries are belatedly coming to that realisation, largely because of Trump’s pressure. They are now prepared to commit up to five per cent of GDP to defence, which is higher than America’s own spend.
But translating that commitment into an actual defence capability will take years, especially if the US doesn’t go all out to help. If Trump refuses to recognise the provisions of Article 5 in the interim, that effectively gives Putin a carte blanche to pounce.
Thus, Zelensky has every reason to believe that the deal on the table means the Ukraine will have to cede much of her territory for nothing, or rather for a certainty that Russia will come back in force within a couple of years, possibly sooner. And America won’t lift a finger to help.
The Ukraine has tangible reasons to feel that Trump sees NATO as a yoke around America’s neck, something he’d happily shed to carve up Europe Yalta-style with Putin.
Commentators indulge in such historical analogies with abandon. Munich, Yalta, Tehran and Potsdam all get an airing, but this only goes to show how imprecise such parallels are.
Much closer to the current situation, both chronologically and substantively, is the 1973 Paris Peace Accord between the US and North Vietnam. That was supposed to end the Vietnam War, with South Vietnam keeping its sovereignty. In fact, that was America delivering South Vietnam to the communists on a platter, and the only surprise was that it took Hanoi two years to claim its prize.
Even closer and much more relevant to the Ukraine’s plight is another security guarantee that has turned out to be a sham. On 5 December 1994, the USA, Britain and Russia (!) signed the Budapest Memorandum, guaranteeing the Ukraine’s territorial integrity in exchange for her relinquishing nuclear weapons.
The nuclear weapons were duly given up, and as for that security guarantee, the less said about it, the better. President Zelensky and all Ukrainians must be cursing the day on which their country tossed away her only real security blanket, agreeing to cover herself with nothing but a piece of paper worth even less than the New York subway fare.
Now, after 11 years of Russian aggression, escalating to a full-scale invasion on 24 February, 2022, the Ukraine is expected – let’s not mince words – to capitulate in exchange for another worthless security guarantee.
I don’t know how far Zelensky’s English goes, but I hope he’ll have the testicular fortitude to tell Trump exactly where to put his ‘deal’. That and a buck, okay, make it 2.9 bucks, will get you on the subway, Donald. You can scream till you’re blue in the face, but the Ukraine isn’t going to fall for another bogus ploy.
If, as I suspect, Zelensky’s English isn’t quite up to such idiomatic scratch, I’m hereby offering my services as ventriloquist. Free of charge.