As self-admittedly “the greatest president in history”, it stands to reason that Trump would succeed where all previous presidents “have failed before me”. Peace at last.
He was referring to the ‘memorandum of understanding’ (MOU) signed yesterday, and we have to take his word for its value since no details elucidating said understanding have been released.
One reason for such reticence is that no details have been worked out yet, leaving the devil homeless and in desperate need of free housing and social handouts. The nitty-gritty work will supposedly be done over the next 60 days, at which point we’ll be expected to appreciate the true magnitude of Trump’s diplomatic genius.
Meanwhile, let’s take stock of what we do know about the MOU. First, the Strait of Hormuz will be open to shipping. If that isn’t a resounding victory, Trump doesn’t know what is.
His announcement on Truth Social was supposed, but failed, to come down with the weight of Caesar’s Veni, vidi, vici: “I hereby fully authorize the toll free opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and, simultaneously herewith, authorize the immediate removal of the United States Naval blockade. Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!”
However, it’s useful to remember that the Strait had been open before the war started, with oil flowing in a powerful stream. If all that the war has achieved is restoring the status quo, then it’s not entirely clear what the point was, thereby and therewith.
Actually, the status quo is still in the future. The Strait is chock-a-block with mines, and clearing those out will take time. It’ll hence take a while for commercial shipping to resume and for the oil to flow. Still, the price of crude has instantly gone down, which is good news, may it last.
Before the war the Strait was an international waterway, with Iran claiming no exclusive sovereignty over it. She has since done so, and the MOU doesn’t state whether this state of affairs will continue. I suppose all will be revealed in 60 days, but it’s already clear that the two sides see the situation differently.
Reports differ on how much is left of Iran’s missile stocks and her capacity to replenish them. But however much or little it is, the MOU isn’t reported to provide for wholesale decommissioning.
If Iran stood alone in the world, she wouldn’t be able to restore her devastated armament industry to the pre-war levels quickly if at all. But she doesn’t stand alone. Iran enjoys the friendship of other evil states, such as Russia and especially China.
Depending on their commitment to rebuilding Iran’s arsenal, and nothing suggests it’ll be half-hearted, they could probably help Iran to start bristling with missiles within a couple of years. The reports on the MOU say nothing about such cooperation being made impossible. But then we have 60 days to sweat out the details.
The strongest casus belli was Iran’s efforts to develop (or otherwise acquire) nuclear weapons. Apparently, the MOU includes the mullahs’ promise to cease and desist – or rather the reiteration of the original promise first issued in 1970 and consistently broken ever since.
Yes, but is it a real promise? Did the head mullah cross his heart and hope to die? (In view of what happened at the beginning of the war, such a hope would have an element of black humour to it.) Did he swear on his father’s grave?
Even if all such puerile rituals were followed, anyone in his right mind would know not to trust promises made by evil regimes in general and Iran in particular. After all, in spite of their previous pledges, the mullahs have stealthily enriched a large amount of uranium to its explosive isotope.
Does the MOU mention Iran’s relinquishing that stock? According to Trump, yes. The US will retrieve the enriched uranium – and no one knows how much there is – and destroy it. However, that’s not what Tehran says. According to it, Iran will get rid of the offensive material on her own, and that’s a promise. Splendid. That’s all right then. Job done.
Then there is the minor issue of Israel, and don’t let us forget that the war has been tripartite. Israel has any number of gripes about Iran, but the overarching one is that Iran is doctrinally committed to erasing Israel and every Jew in it off the face of the earth.
The Israelis know where the first Iranian nuclear bomb will fall the moment the mullahs acquire it. This makes them understandably nervous about some omissions in the MOU, especially those involving nuclear weapons and the means of their delivery.
Meanwhile, Iran is incessantly attacking Israel by proxy, using for the purpose the terrorist organisations she sponsors, namely Hamas and Hezbollah. The other day, the latter hit Israel with drones and missiles, and what do you know: Israel immediately retaliated with her own bombing raids on Hezbollah’s lairs in Lebanon.
This happened just as Trump’s negotiators were putting the final touches to the MOU, and Trump was incandescent. “This morning’s attack on Beirut should not have happened,” he wrote on Truth Social, “ particularly on a special day when we are so close to a Peace Deal with Iran. This could be the beginning of a long and beautiful peace – Let’s not blow it!” No pun intended.
The naysayers among us, a group that manifestly includes Benjamin Netanyahu, suspect that the peace will be neither long nor beautiful (one of Trump’s stock adjectives). Meanwhile, Israel isn’t going to step meekly aside and let Hezbollah pound her with impunity.
Talking to a reporter on the record, Trump unleashed a long and beautiful tirade showing that he doesn’t subscribe to Metternich’s idea of diplomacy, nor even Kissinger’s: “Why did Bibi have to do a f***ing attack? I was so pissed off. I let him know. He has no f***ing judgement. I let him know that.”
Trump is a man of extremes. In the recent past, he was one of the most pro-Israel US presidents, certainly in his first term. But it’s entirely possible that the pendulum of his fickle affections may swing the other way at the drop of a missile. He has dismissed every other American ally, so why not Israel?
Israel isn’t going to risk her long-term survival, nor indeed the lives of her citizens at present, for the chimera of Trump’s peace with Iran, however long and beautiful. If Hezbollah fire missiles and drones on Israel, Israel will strike back – anything else would be irresponsible.
Hence, whenever Iranians feel they can’t get their way during the negotiations, all they have to do is wink at their Hezbollah attack dogs, and there goes the long and beautiful peace. All the parties involved know this, and that includes Trump.
Perhaps his thinking can be best understood in light of America’s domestic policies. In exactly 141 days, Trump may become a lame duck president if he loses control of one chamber of Congress, or even both, in the mid-term elections.
That result is practically guaranteed if the war still drags on then, and oil prices continue to punch gaping holes through Americans’ family budgets. Hence, Trump has to create any half-credible simulacrum of peace, turning the negotiations into a filibuster if need be.
Anyone who takes seriously the idea that a long and beautiful peace will be achieved within 60 days must also believe that Trump stopped the war in the Ukraine within 24 hours, three days or a fortnight at most. The Donald juggles such numerals with the dexterity of a circus performer, and 60 days may well become 141.
If he then secures control of both Houses, Trump will be able to resume hostilities with the aim of forcing a regime change in Iran. Only that can guarantee that Iran’s threat to the world will be decisively downgraded.
That was the original objective, instantly abandoned when the surviving mullahs showed no willingness to commit suicide. In 141 days that objective may be revived, and Trump may even order a ground invasion, although I’m not sure Americans are ready to take thousands of casualties.
If this strikes you as guesswork, it’s precisely what it is. When we are starved of information, we have to feed ourselves on conjecture. Still, come what may, I very much doubt that in 60 days from now the threat of Iran will be expunged once and for all – certainly not as a result of Trump’s diplomacy.
Based on what we know and can credibly surmise, Trump’s triumph looks more like a humiliating defeat. The theocratic regime is still in place, its offensive arsenal hasn’t been totally destroyed, it’s gaining new powers over the Strait, the MOU apparently includes the removal of most sanctions, terrorist organisations are still there at the mullahs’ beck and call.
Let’s just hope that, as ever, appearances are deceptive.
An MOU is not a contract. It is not legally binding. Even if it were, how could it possibly be enforced? What is the point?
This entire affair has been bungled since day one – even prior to that, in the planning. Did President Trump ignore his advisors? Or all they all incompetent?
As far as a being “the beginning of a long and beautiful peace”, that is impossible with Muslims. More likely, “This is just the first step in our slow and painful journey to subjugation.”